January 6 is too early in the year for anyone to sound certain. But it is not too early to notice something structural. 2026 already feels like a year with less slack.
Not in a dramatic, end-of-cycle way. In a systematic way. Trade is moving, but with less momentum. Growth is still there, but it is moderating. Policy is still functioning, but uncertainty is higher. Losses are being absorbed, but insurance capacity keeps repricing. Investment is accelerating in AI, but the physical bottlenecks under that investment are no longer theoretical.